Marketing is more like predicting the weather than a mathematical equation with one definitive answer. Sometimes it rains without warning and other times we’re sweating in wool while the sun shines brightly. We need the ability to quickly shed and add layers without fuss, instead of demanding a more accurate weather report. But marketers often struggle with ambiguity and uncertainty, craving definitive reassurance of what’s to come. Here’s why seeking certainty may create underlying problems in your organization.

Certainty can be a siren for marketers - wooing them with the seductive song of predictability and comfort, only to put marketers in a precarious position. That’s why it’s important to recognize when the allure of certainty may be leading you or your organization astray. Chasing certainty beyond what’s reasonable can be a fool’s errand at best, wasting resources and distracting you from what’s more important, and at worst, a threat to the health of your business.

Here are some of the ways the pursuit of certainty can lead marketers astray:

1. Certainty is often tied to what’s known and familiar, which makes the assumption of a static environment.

   Usually, certainty comes from what’s known and familiar, which is a comfortable place to operate from for many. But it depends on the assumption that nothing changes. This is simply not true in most scenarios. Time, seasonality, consumer preferences, cultural trends, product usage habits, etc., are all examples of potential changes that can make it difficult to replicate the exact same set of conditions.

2. If you’re not expecting change, it can be harder to deal with.

   When you’re not expecting change (or hoping to avoid it), you may be slower to respond. While your company wastes valuable time recognizing the threat/opportunity and deciding whether or not to pursue it, other companies may have already anticipated such scenarios, and thought through potential solutions. Once they occur, your competitor is already speeding forward on executing a solution, while you’re still getting buy-in for problem recognition and trying to convince people it’s worth addressing. In short, you simply can’t be as responsive to changing dynamics when you’re not expecting them. Seemingly small windows of time lost to slowness can be haunting.

3. If your organization needs certainty, you incentivize people to protect the status quo and prevent progress.

   Certainty thrives on fast-tracked decisions, sheeple group dynamics, routine processes, and business as usual. Promising results makes it risky to deviate from what’s “tried and true.” This can be detrimental in a variety of ways:

   • People are hesitant to ask important questions or raise red flags, for fear of being seen as the one who created work that didn’t previously exist (even if it’s a worthy consideration)

   • People are less likely to share new ideas or be willing to experiment, which prevents learning and innovation

   • The focus becomes more on mastering repetition than anything else

   • When you’re trying to get better at repetition, speed becomes important - so questions, new ideas, and experimentation are seen as barriers and met with resistance

   This may put you at a competitive disadvantage in terms of marketing capabilities, but also for recruiting and retaining top talent. High-performers want to work at companies that are equally ambitious. They will also eventually tire of their contributions being seen as more of a burden than an asset, and seek companies where they will be appreciated.

4. The continued pursuit of certainty may represent an emotional need more than a marketing need.

   People like to buy into certainty because it’s comforting. Unfortunately, certainty can be nothing more than an illusion, meaning it can become an expensive form of escapism. If you’re selling clients on certainty, then you’re probably selling a psychological security blanket more than anything else. But you could be writing checks you can’t cash. Down the road, when something unexpected pops up, the client may make a mountain out of a molehill, not because they can’t recognize the true magnitude of the problem, but because deviation from expectation often yields emotive responses, and fear fans the flames. A lack of transparency in client conversations undermines trust, but it also distracts from what you should be focusing on - maximizing business value, instead of minimizing risk.

5. The need for certainty is above all else rooted in fear, and fear doesn’t help you create good work.

   At the heart of it, an attachment to certainty happens when you’re operating from a place of fear. There are many potential fears that cause marketers to cling to certainty, but it ultimately doesn’t fuel good work. It can keep people from thinking rationally and can stifle creativity. Fear can be toxic to the creative process even in small doses, because it inhibits unrestricted thinking. The best creatives are able to operate from a place of near fearlessness - even if just for a moment - to bring to life new ideas. Considering the outsized role creativity plays in campaign efficacy (see this article, #7, “highly creatively-awarded work is 16x as efficient), it’s critical to do everything we can to nurture creativity in our organizations.

In summary, companies that cling to certainty are potentially giving up progress, innovation, competitive advantage, market share, top talent, client trust, and maximum creativity. It may seem a little extreme, but it likely doesn’t happen overnight or in totality. And it doesn’t take a tidal wave to damage a business. A little water seeping in over time can eventually erode the foundation and crumble it from within. Or, maybe it’s just dragging you down a little bit. Either way, marketers need a responsible relationship with certainty, because over-reliance on it can negatively impact business performance. Recognize the limitations of certainty, keep it in check, and be cognizant of where it could be holding you back. Most importantly, be aware of what you’re sacrificing when pursuing certainty, so you can decide if it’s worth it.